China housing market 2026: prices, costs, and FSBO

China's housing market is still correcting in mid-2026, but the picture splits sharply by city tier and by how you measure it. The National Bureau of Statistics 70-city new-home index was down 3.5% year over year and 0.2% month over month in May 2026, while the broader 100-city second-hand index fell a steeper 7.99% year over year and 0.32% month over month. The gap is real, not noise: the NBS series is a transaction-price, quality-controlled measure, while listing and resale indices capture the deeper discounting sellers are actually accepting.

The national second-hand listing average sits around 12,692 CNY/sqm, but the first-tier cities are a different world. May 2026 listing averages run 53,808 CNY/sqm in Beijing, 60,964 in Shanghai, and 71,918 in Shenzhen, which puts a typical 90 sqm two-to-three-bedroom apartment at roughly 4.8M to 6.5M CNY. Within a single city the spread is enormous; in Shanghai, central Huangpu lists near 114,510 CNY/sqm while outlying Jinshan is closer to 15,815.

Our own read on June 23, 2026 fits the first-tier picture rather than the national average, as you would expect from a sample of the priciest cities. Live Beijing listings on a property portal ranged from 2.39M CNY (78.3 sqm, 2BR) to 6.91M CNY (130 sqm, 4BR), with a 117 sqm three-bedroom at 4.45M CNY. Taking the mean first-tier rate of about 62,230 CNY/sqm across a 90 sqm home gives a first-tier nowcast of about 5.6M CNY, well above the national figure because it samples only the largest markets. First-tier markets are stabilizing (Shanghai new homes were up 3.2% year over year, Shenzhen listings up 1.67% month over month) even as lower-tier cities keep sliding.

Seller-side costs in China are modest by global standards, because most transaction tax has traditionally landed on the buyer. There is no stamp duty for individuals on residential property, and registration and any notary fees come to only a few hundred CNY. The deed tax of 1% to 3% is customarily paid by the buyer.

The two taxes that can touch a seller are VAT and individual income tax, and both have generous exemptions. Since January 2026 the VAT levy rate is 3% (cut from 5%) and applies only if you sell within 2 years of buying; after that it is exempt. Individual income tax of 1% of the price (or 20% of the gain) is waived entirely if the home is your only property and you have held it 5 or more years, the widely cited 满五唯一 rule. For a long-term, single-home seller, both of these typically fall away.

That leaves the agent commission as the main cost, and it is shrinking. Total commission now generally runs 1% to 2% of the sale price. On the example CNY 3,000,000 home that is roughly CNY 30,000 to 60,000 in total fees. For a long-term sole-home seller the typical out-of-pocket bill lands around CNY 15,000 (about 0.5%), mostly the seller's share of that commission. The headline change is who pays: historically the buyer covered the full commission, but since 2023 regulatory guidance pushing fees down and splitting them, the market is moving toward a buyer-and-seller split (the largest brokerage cut its Beijing rate from 2.7% to 2% and now divides it evenly). In many cities buyer-pays still persists and the split is negotiable, so a seller's actual exposure can be anywhere from nothing to about half of a 2% fee.

For-sale-by-owner is fully legal in China, and an owner can transact directly with a buyer. In practice it is uncommon, because the secondary market is dominated by large agencies that control listing visibility and, crucially, manage the multi-step ownership transfer: tax clearance, mortgage discharge, and title registration at the local housing bureau. Banks and buyers generally expect an agency to coordinate escrow and the transfer, which is the real friction a private seller has to plan around.

The market conditions also push toward agents right now. Second-hand listings exceed 8.5 million nationwide, and the average time on market has stretched to roughly 187 days, with properties typically discounting more than 10% over the listing period. New second-hand inflow in 25 key cities was about 120,000 units in May 2026, down 41% year over year, a sign that some owners are pulling back rather than cutting further. In a slow, oversupplied market, reach matters, which is why most owners still route through an agency even as commissions fall.

If you sell privately, the practical playbook is to post directly wherever owner listings are accepted, price against published city and district medians rather than a single agent's opinion, and engage the transfer paperwork early. Owners can also list on Anyone.com at no cost, with no commission taken.com as well for reach. Confirm whether your home qualifies for the 满五唯一 income-tax exemption before you set terms, get your mortgage payoff and title documents in order up front, and be ready to coordinate the housing-bureau transfer and escrow that an agency would normally handle. Because the seller's tax burden is usually light, the entire FSBO case in China comes down to whether the commission you save is worth the legwork on reach and paperwork.